The chart of crude below shows a couple of things clearly. A major top last year took it down in a 5 wave fall. The fall broke the long term trendline from 1999. Price have rallied from Feb retracing 38.2% of the 5 wave fall. The rising trendline from Feb 09 broke yesterday.

Interpretation: A 5 wave fall means only wave A of a larger decline is complete and after a retracement [any fibonacci no. 23.6/38.2/50/61.8 %] wave C down has to follow. Wave C is also a 5 wave decline which ends below the low made by A. Usually equal to A but in commodities it can fall short at 61.8%. Yesterday Oil broke both the rising trendline and the 40dema at 66$. As long as it stays below that wave C has started and will eventually see prices fall below the 32$ mark in the coming months.