INDIACHARTS®

INDIACHARTS is a scientific analysis of the Indian and global stock markets updated weekly using the tools of Elliott Wave theory, candlesticks, momentum cycles, sentiment indicators, moving averages and automated trading systems. TNT or the new technicians represent the approach to the use of these classical tools that has been applied here. 

ALL WAVE COUNTS ON THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGES ARE ACTUALLY COUNTED/ANALYZED MANUALLY ON CHARTS AND DO NOT INVOLVE THE USE OF ANY AUTOMATED WAVE COUNTING SOFTWARE.

Rohit Srivastava: ' Indiacharts is a free update on the markets for public reading. My views are based on my analysis of the markets after years of such analysis, since 1991. MORE ABOUT ME  Visit my video blog on Elliott and long term Cycles at http://www.youtube.com/indiacharts

TECHNICAL FORECAST AND MARKET POSITION FOR INDIA [SENSEX]

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Market update : FEBRUARY 06, 2012

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Explanatory Note: 

The index is getting overbought in the very short term and it may pause or correct a little before advancing further. However the momentum has still not reversed clearly yet and you need to watch it closely. Overall however we broke out of the falling channel of last one year and it should hold for higher levels up to 5675.

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Nifty, Elliott wave update : FEBRUARY 06, 2012

SHORT TERM COUNT : 

The Nifty is rising in a very well channeled formation. Within that 5 legs appear complete and there are negative divergences in some sentiment indicators so a short term correction in wave iv may be close. The upper end of the channel was met today morning on intraday charts however stretching to 5440 cannot be ruled out once we enter wave iv which could be a triangle we would see a week or two of trading activity between 5280-5440 as wave iv is often a triangle. 5280 is the breakout point from the larger falling channel and should hold. 5230 is the lower end of the short term rising channel.

MEDIUM TERM COUNT 

The rally beyond 5280 leads to a few changes in the preferred wave count for me. I has stuck to A-B-C for the entire decline with B being a triangle. Wave C ended in Oct from where I expected that C would extend in C1-C2-C3-C4-C5. What has followed is an expanded flat. Last week I looked at the smaller expanded flat potential which has a target till 5280 based on 1.618 time projection. Now that we are above that we are looking at the larger expanded flat structure from here which as a target near 5675 which is close to the 61.8% retracement mark of the entire fall. The upper Bollinger band near 5440 is rising and therefore prices are unlikely to halt there and should go higher. Apart from a wave IV on the weekly charts as part of a larger wave C rally up the trend should still be up till we are above 5200 levels. The 40wema at 5132 should be a pivot for the trend.

LONG TERM COUNT 

THE LONG & SHORT REPORT : January 20,2012 - The latest report is uploaded.

The long short report is now published and discusses the implications of wave C down in wave Y. As shown below we have started wave Y down which is a cyclical bear market. It would break up as a complex corrective. The first leg of the complex pattern appears to be an A-B-C where B is a triangle, as also a right shoulder. Click on the link above for a detailed analysis of this. The latest Kondratieff article above gives you further inputs about that change.

The long term Sensex made a double top in November v/s 2008. But this is the first double top that did not make a new high even marginally than the previous one, i.e. 2010 high was lower than 2008. In 1994 and 2004 the highs were marginally higher than 1992 and 2000 respectively. So in the past cases the second rally was also 5 wave ending an impulse of previous degree. I still don't think for sure that the rally from the 2009 lows is an impulse but a X [similar characteristics of a B] wave retracing almost 100% but still lagging. The Midcap indices lagging even more. So wave Y down should be upon us instead of C as presumed earlier, allowing for a more complex pattern rather than a 5 wave decline. This means that the path down can split into components. The only alternate is a multi year triangle but that is a wave 4 phenomena and I don't think Indian market can be a wave 4 at supercycle degree, our supercycle starts only after independence. Still the first target would be that of the H&S/triangle discussed above at 14000 and we can review it there. The multi year trendline is at 10000. Lastly check out the volumes at the lower end of the chart clearly falling which is typical of bear markets, an inverse correlation with trend.

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Rohit Srivastava: ' This is a free update on the markets for public reading. My views are based on my analysis of the markets after years of such analysis, since 1991. Investment decisions made on the above analysis would be at your own risk and I take no responsibility for your decisions based on the above analysis.' Rohit Srivastava is an employee of Sharekhan limited, you may note that Sharekhan limited and/or its subsidiaries /group companies are not connected with this website in any capacity.