Long-Short Report

SHOCKED by this weeks sell off? WHAT NEXT? Every month I forecast the Market View for the Month ahead  with a clear cut Nifty forecast, using Elliott Waves, 2 dozen charts, including a dozen of my sentiment indicators that help measure cycles in the market and identify medium term tops and bottoms. The targets are not important but the direction is, and the LSR is always published where tops or bottoms are being established. Also covers key Macroeconomic factors and charts that are important including currencies interest rates or gold. GET   INDIACHARTS INSIDERS! 

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ELLIOTT WAVE THEORY is the foundation on which the framework of forecasting, human behavior reflected in stock prices across time frames, is built. Its combination with Technical analysis allows the generation of clear trading ideas and trend forecasting [candlesticks, momentum cycles, sentiment indicators, moving averages and automated trading systems]. Its combination with economic theory allows forecasting the investment environment. Its combination with the fundamental life cycle of an investment allows for long term stock picking. At Indiacharts we cover all these aspects while making a forecast.

MY MISSION : QUALITY EQUITY ANALYSIS FOR EVERYONE : In a world overwhelmed by information media news and chaos, where research has become a support function for maintaining information and generating reports making buy/sell/hold recommendations, true forecasting will find its place in the Sun. We believe understanding the market is more important and that does not require a micro study, but a Macro study of the environment. In trading its all about sticking with the method through thick and thin, generating trades on an ongoing basis with the larger trend in mind. In investment its about finding a few ideas to hang onto with limited downside risk. You don't need a 100 investment ideas to make money. Just 2 will do. Nuts...

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		Rohit Srivastava: ' Indiacharts® is a live update of my market analysis for public reading. My views are based on my understanding of the markets after years of such analysis, since 1991. MORE ABOUT ME  Visit my network on the left and share it. Start your Indiacharts experience JOIN the free mailing list. OR Join Indiacharts Insiders

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23 FEBRUARY 2015

MEDIUM TERM

NIFTY ELLIOTT WAVE UPDATE :- The medium term Elliott wave counts and analysis updated on weekly charts every weekend to subscibers.

It is about time that the market breaks out of the channel into a new price range. Both bullish and bearish options remain open, with an eventful week use key levels for judgement. The big question remains 'Are we ending or extending'  READ MORE

 LONG TERM COUNT 

THE LONG & SHORT REPORT :- The LSR is our detailed monthly forecast of where the markets are headed, including sentiment indicators, inter market analysis, wave counts and a global perspective . Report now available TO Indiacharts Subscribers.

Long term Perspective and Basis: Updated 01 DECEMBER 2014

In the Long short report I have often written about the Late autumn bull market. This was analogous to the late summer bull market. The summer was the business cycle that turned down in the 1990s but ended after the Y2K bubble. That was a speculative bull run. Similarly we are in a business cycle down turn since 2010 and are now in a bull run QE/OMO driven into bonds. This bull run in a business cycle down turn must similarly end in a bubble to be identified only later after its over. The next leg down would be the last of the Kondratieff winter phase for India as well as all the debts and NPAs created are dealt with. Wave wise too I have revised the wave counts to a triangle followed by a 5 wave advance from the Aug 2013 low, as a final conclusion. This is the best case right now. The 5th wave of that bull run is now going on. Note I use the words bull run and not bull market, because a Bull market is a broad based rise in markets across sectors and over many years. What we have is a narrow bull run mostly in defensive stocks or those dependent on the global economy. At least so far.

The business cycle turned down in 1994 [double top with 1992] and ended in 2001 Both were Sept. 7 years. The next one ended in 2010 double top with  2008. 2010 was in Nov, so Nov 2017 is the best time for the down business cycle to end and next BULL MARKET to start. The tech bubble was 5 quarters long and we complete 5 quarters for the current bull market in Dec 2014. Too close for comfort. And yes in my previous notes I expected this business cycle to have alternation with the previous one and thus rejected the triangle formation however that was a Mistake so let me admit it here. Wave IV below is a triangle. Wave 5 is an impulse.

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