Long-Short Report -  

At the Crossroads - MAY 2018

After One of the worst starts to a new Year in years we are faced by relentless selling in Midcaps

Most are discounting this as a one off event, but the trend has not changed and my Long term charts

indicate that this is a trend that is here to stay. Macroeconomic factors are ignored by many professional

investors because they do not matter for a long time. But when market trends turn then they are all that seem

to matter. That the trends themselves have not changed but gotten deeper is a matter of concern. I discuss

the key drivers for the months ahead in the May report

MAY DAY 2018 Market Outlook report

The Long Short Report   

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India's Long Economic cycle -  

 The Indian economy like every other follows the Long wave economic cycle, a debt based model of finance. Based on this it is possible to forecast the future path of the economy by studying the 4 seasons of the Kondratieff cycle. I published the first paper on the Indian Kondratieff cycle in 2009 and have been posting related article as updates from time to time based on it. To understand where the economy is in the long wave read the detailed paper [it is FREE] here and then continue to READ THE LASTEST UPDATE  

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18 JUNE 2018

The weekly Elliott Wave commentary with Targets and levels is published every Sunday to Subscribers, This is only an excerpt of our observations from recent publications.

MEDIUM TERM

NIFTY ELLIOTT WAVE UPDATE 

On the weekly chart Nifty has moved from the upper Bollinger band to the lower and back to the upper over the last 6 months. Of this the last 4 weeks we closed positive but did not make new highs. Doji candlesticks that mean a very small rises from open to close for each week was seen. This dull behaviour with low breadth and volumes has taken away the volatility and excitement that was present at the start of the year. The upper band is an important resistance at 10964, and unless surpassed should deflect prices lower again.   READ MORE 

 LONG TERM  

THE LONG & SHORT REPORT :- The LSR is our detailed monthly forecast of where the markets are headed, including sentiment indicators, inter market analysis, wave counts and a global perspective . Report now available To Indiacharts Subscribers.

Long term Perspective and Basis: Updated 18 Dec 2017

Nifty continued its long term 5th wave formation into 2017. The pattern across indices has slowly morphed itself into a ending pattern especially on broad based indices like the Nifty 500 with perfect touch points. On the Nifty chart below however wave E of 5 is still away from the upper line and an early termination will lead to what we call truncation. As discussed in the Economic winter reports this points to a final winter bear market that lies ahead. The winter bear market has been hard to spot as the nominal index continues higher. It can give us the slip in nominal terms but not relative to Inflation, USD, or Gold. If the 5th wave does manage to extend it would be on the back of inflationary forces that have now become apparent, however inflation adjusted returns of the Nifty since 2008 remain negative. Nifty adjusted for Inflation and Gold and USD are discussed under the Economic updates section of the website. In nominal terms the ending pattern may turn into a running triangle and result in a rally if the slowly rising inflation turns into a trend of rapidly rising prices. This is not what I expect. I expect to see stagflation some time in the second half of next year as commodity prices continue to advance in the midst of the dollar bear market that has already started. I have discussed these trends extensively in my podcasts on Soundcloud so do not miss them. The entire rise from 2009-2017 so far appears like a 3-3-3-3-3, structure, and thus marked as A-B-C-D-E. If you want to mark an impulse consider 1-2-3-4-5 done where 5<3<1. The conclusion is the same. The 2009-2017 advance in Nifty is the slowest in Indian stock market history and that should tell you something about its nature. The record highs do not change the big picture. Right now I hold my contrarian stance long term even if we do make one more new record after the Gujarat elections.

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