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- Category: Uncategorised
- Created on 07 December 2012
- Written by Rohit Srivastava
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Rohit Srivastava: ' Indiacharts® is a live update of my market analysis for public reading. My views are based on my understanding of the markets after years of such analysis, since 1991. MORE ABOUT ME Visit my network on the left and share it. Start your Indiacharts experience JOIN the free mailing list. OR Join Indiacharts Insiders |
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- Category: About
- Created on 10 June 2013
- Written by Rohit Srivastava
Winter Update
The 5 wave impact
- Category: Winter Update
- Created on 08 November 2014
- Written by Rohit Srivastava
ABOUT TURN : WHOSE TURN IS IT
11 months ago I first pointed out the concept of "An asset class shift". The last few months have been the most interesting not just because of the end of QE but the announcements that have come out of Japan. Their intentions have convinced everyone on the Long dollar trade and the Long USDJPY and the rush into global equities. But as happens with some events they come in at a time when everyone is already all in. As EW studies show the government is the biggest crowd. They act on mass opinions of the voters and bureaucracy and after consensus is built. So its not surprising that they cause trend changes.
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Long-Short Report
The Long and Short report is the Market View for the Month ahead 'Nifty Daily' and 'Nifty Elliott Wave update' are daily and weekly market updates to understanding where we stand at the end of each time frame. The Kondratieff Cycle is the long term economic cycle. The Long term report discusses my thoughts on the Wave structure on the monthly and quarterly charts and how it coincides with economic data. The idea is to focus away from short term trading cycles on the daily and weekly degree and understand the investment environment for equities and other related asset classes.
IC Mornings
IC Mornings is your email update on all the important moves made in markets overnight from World Equities Commodities Currencies and Inter Market analysis that will keep you up to date on various trends around the world. We scan all the charts every morning to spot key trend changes and analysis that is important.
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- Category: Uncategorised
- Created on 01 April 2013
- Written by Rohit Srivastava
27 JANUARY 2015
MEDIUM TERM
NIFTY ELLIOTT WAVE UPDATE :- The medium term Elliott wave counts and analysis updated on weekly charts every weekend to subscibers.
Weekly momentum indicators whipsawed back to a buy. The key question is whether wave 5 is ending or extending. Seasonality is likely to kick in. READ MORE
LONG TERM COUNT
THE LONG & SHORT REPORT :- The LSR is our detailed monthly forecast of where the markets are headed, including sentiment indicators, inter market analysis, wave counts and a global perspective . Report now available TO Indiacharts Subscribers.
Long term Perspective and Basis: Updated 01 DECEMBER 2014
In the Long short report I have often written about the Late autumn bull market. This was analogous to the late summer bull market. The summer was the business cycle that turned down in the 1990s but ended after the Y2K bubble. That was a speculative bull run. Similarly we are in a business cycle down turn since 2010 and are now in a bull run QE driven into bonds. This bull run in a business cycle down turn must similarly end in a bubble to be identified only later after its over. The next leg down would be the last of the Kondratieff winter phase for India as well as all the debts and NPAs created are dealt with. Wave wise too I have revised the wave counts to a triangle followed by a 5 wave advance from the Aug 2013 low, as a final conclusion. This is the best case right now. The 5th wave of that bull run is now going on. Note I use the words bull run and not bull market, because a Bull market is a broad based rise in markets across sectors and over many years. What we have is a narrow bull run mostly in defensive stocks or those dependent on the global economy. At least so far.
The business cycle turned down in 1994 [double top with 1992] and ended in 2001 Both were Sept. 7 years. The next one ended in 2010 double top with 2008. 2010 was in Nov, so Nov 2017 is the best time for the down business cycle to end and next BULL MARKET to start. The tech bubble was 5 quarters long and we complete 5 quarters for the current bull market in Dec 2014. Too close for comfort. And yes in my previous notes I expected this business cycle to have alternation with the previous one and thus rejected the triangle formation however that was a Mistake so let me admit it here.
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