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- Category: Uncategorised
- Created on 07 December 2012
- Written by Rohit Srivastava
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Rohit Srivastava: ' Indiacharts® is a free update on the markets for public reading. My views are based on my analysis of the markets after years of such analysis, since 1991. MORE ABOUT ME
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- Details
- Category: Nifty
- Created on 20 May 2013
- Written by Rohit Srivastava
MARKET UPDATE: 20 MAY 2013
| NIFTY | ||||
| TIME | TARGET | TREND | REVERSAL | TIME |
| Short term trend | 6220 | Up | 6100 | 1-5 Days |
| Medium term trend | 6280 | Up | 5970 | 1-4 Weeks |
| SENSEX | ||||
| TIME | TARGET | TREND | REVERSAL | TIME |
| Short term trend | 20750 | Up | 20100 | 1-5 Days |
| Medium term trend | 20460 | Up | 19650 | 1-3 Weeks |
*changes are marked highlighted in brown
Explanatory Note:
The great divide continued between segments of the market. Small cap indices retracing 23.6% v/s Nifty making a new high. So we have an uptrend that has not reversed and is open to extensions or subdivisions. But I cant call it a bull market as yet, for that the whole market needs to start dancing to the bulls tune. there are early signs but not enough in that direction. Wave Z can end here or subdivide into A-B-C over another month. There are clearly a lot of headwinds to watch out for so the short term trend will take precedence over the longer term one as alternate wave counts develop and confirm.
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SHORT TERM COUNT
Did wave B end last Monday itself is a pertinent question. Once we get clear wave extensions in the move up from 5970 then it will be possible to use that to target higher levels. Till then the first hurdle is near 6220 the upper Bollinger band for a deeper correction which is normal in wave B. Deeper means going back to 5800-5900 range. If wave C has already started then once 6280 is surpassed targets could extend to C=A=6750. This view is under consideration as evidence is developing as to what to expect first in the near term. Negative divergences continue to build in the short term indicators that need to be ruled out be wave extensions for a clear case.
MEDIUM TERM COUNT
The weekly momentum indicators crossed into buy after the Nifty hit 6020, and we were too close to 78.6% retracement then. Most of the gain after that was a one day affair leading to a 5 week rally and we are now close to the upper Bollinger band already. Wave B has not shown up on the weekly charts either making me suspect that it can at some point. The upper line of the wedge like triangle structure is at 6280 and is an achievable target now. But a breakout higher will be another thing and should involve the rest of the market joining in on all fronts. Last weeks low of 5970 and the 20dma at 5880 are key supports for the medium term.
