30 MAY 2016
The weekly elliott wave commentary with Targets and levels is published every Sunday to Subscribers, This is only an excerpt.
Nifty broke out of the falling expanding patten, but broader indices like the BSE500 are lagging behind. The move up was all done in 4 days making the biggest weekly candle since the Feb bottom. And we have not seen such candles in all of the last few years. I still think this is a bear market rally and have been marking it as an X wave. Except that the X could now be of larger degree. Whether it is a-b-c or an expanding triangle is only a matter of interpretation... READ MORE
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Long term Perspective and Basis: Updated 09 NOVEMBER 2015
Long term readers know that I have often made a comparison of the Markets with the year 2000 During 2012 when the market tested the 6100 mark again I wrote about the Late Autumn bull market on the lines of Y2K it did not happen then. But more than a year later the market rally that started in 2013 turned out to be just that. With that the two period have many similarities that can be drawn out easily on an simple Arithmetic scale chart of the Sensex So that is what I am doing here First the 9 year period from 1992-2001, remember 1991 is when I started to first track the markets so when I see these two periods I get a sense of Deja Vu because of the business cycle and it's similarities in behaviour and possible outcomes. One look below and keep in mind the time difference in between the subsequent tops and bottoms and that it took 9 years. That 1992-94 was a double top. From the 1993 3 we can draw a rising channel and the Y2K bubble ends with a push just above the upper line. After that the last 18 months bear phase ended the business cycle and a new bull market resumed.
That brings me to 2008-2017 another 9 year time period with a double top between 2008-2010. A rising channel from the 2009 low that was touched on top during the 2015 breakout rally. Yes this channel is steeper upwards than the one in 2000 but it is similar in the sense that both the bubbles involved a very narrow list of stocks that were the drivers of the move. Back then it was Tech but in a speculative sense the ICE stocks. This time it was Exporters too but included Textiles Tech and Auto ancillaries. Defensive FMCG/Phrama did well in both phases. Both ended in high valuations and the last phase was an 18 month bear market amidst BJP rule Well we have BJP. And even monthly indicators are now in sell. It is just a question of whether you believe that we are from March 2015 in an 18 month bear phase that takes us to October 2016. Or early 2017. And how far down? Use your imagination. In 2000 it was back to the 1998 low 3 years later. The 2013 low was 5100 Nifty. Imagination right? But then what is the difference between Imagination and Reality....it is belief and perception. The unwinding of debt has put us into the last phase of this cycle and so it should be for the markets as well. Levels are a matter of individual judgement. Be prepared accordingly.
The long term wave count and chart that I have maintained is below. It shows that we completed a wave IV triangle between 2008-2013. The Vth wave maybe over and prices are close to testing the rising blue trendline from the 2003 low. This 5 wave advance ends a Supercycle degree bull market in India that Started in 1934 or from Independence. This is the final phase of India's Kondratieff Winter cycle that is discussed in detail in the Economic articles under Nifty forecast menu.
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- Written by Rohit Srivastava
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