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NEVER SAY NEVER - 01 MAY 2017
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The Indian economy like every other follows the Long wave economic cycle, a debt based model of finance. Based on this it is possible to forecast the future path of the economy by studying the 4 seasons of the Kondratieff cycle. I published the first paper on the Indian Kondratieff cycle in 2009 and have been posting related article as updates from time to time based on it. To understand where the economy is in the long wave read the detailed paper [it is FREE] here and then continue to READ THE LASTEST UPDATE
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Market Spotlight -19 June 2017
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- Category: India Stock Market
- Written by Rohit Srivastava
27 JUNE 2017
The weekly Elliott Wave commentary with Targets and levels is published every Sunday to Subscribers, This is only an excerpt.
MEDIUM TERM
The new high in most indices this week was not confirmed by the Nifty. The New high in Nifty this month was not confirmed by the Midcap and Smallcap indices this month. Inter market divergences galore precede market trend reversals.... READ MORE
LONG TERM
THE LONG & SHORT REPORT :- The LSR is our detailed monthly forecast of where the markets are headed, including sentiment indicators, inter market analysis, wave counts and a global perspective . Report now available TO Indiacharts Subscribers.
Long term Perspective and Basis: Updated 29 MAY 2017
Sensex completed a long term 5th wave in 2015. Midcap index since then has transformed into an ending diagonal pattern [3-3-3-3-3], structure on weekly charts. Nifty could have developed the same but did not. The next best alternate is to mark the two as expanded flat patterns. The rise from the 2016 low is a-b-c as part of wave b of a expanded flat. The expanded flat is the only structure that allows for a new high in wave b. But with a limit of 138.2% of wave a. In very large time frames 161.8% is seen but is more rare. So 123.6% and 138.2% are two possible projections in this pattern. 123.6% is now at 31800. But the thing about 5th waves also is that they do not follow script. They can truncate extend or fail and therefore difficult. The end point is best trailed with a number of your choice. The out performance of Midcaps over NIfty for a prolonged period creates a large market divergence that has gone on longer than ever before. Such divergences are often a advance warning of a major trend reversal at hand. Many may want to argue that 1994-2001 is wave 2 and not wave 4, however based on my assessment of Economic cycles as discussed in the Economic cycles section of the website this is a better assessment. You will need back data going back to the 1940s to get the full picture on this. The existence of a triangle from 2008-2013 allows us to mark that as wave IV of the structure. Till proven otherwise wave V of 5 has ended completing a supercycle degree Bull market that started with the inception of the RBI in 1934. This is discussed in more detail in the Economic winter reports. If the 5th wave does manage to extend it would be on the back of inflationary forces that have now become apparent but inflation adjusted returns of the Nifty since 2008 remain negative. Nifty adjusted for Inflation and Gold are discussed under the Economic updates section of the website.
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