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- Created on 10 June 2013
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- Created on 01 April 2013
- Written by Rohit Srivastava
MARKET UPDATE: 21 JULY 2014
| NIFTY | ||||
| TIME | TARGET | TREND | REVERSAL | TIME |
| Medium term trend | 7080 | Down | 7800 | 1-4 Weeks |
*changes are marked highlighted in brown
Explanatory Note:
After sell signals and divergences will markets make one more new high? Sentiment suggests that upsides will not sustain irrespective.
MEDIUM TERM
The Nifty closed positive for the week. Not what I would normally expect from a major top. So even as an ending diagonal is in place the reaction so far did not break the previous swing low near 7440. This after a negative divergence in RSI and momentum. So can we make one more high above 7800 before a final top? I don't expect it but since we closed positive from 7440 I cant rule it out. The weight of evidence is not in favor of a strong rally. Meaning that all the sentiment indicators are cooling off after extreme readings and negative divergences and that usually continues till the cooling off leads to a complete cycle in the indicators coming back to a lower level from where they can start up again. That has not happened. The OI on the Call side is far higher than the Put side. I first highlighted that in May after the election results that 16k crore worth of Calls more than Puts were open. In June too the no was above 16k crore on average, because of which a new high above the election day high was not sustained. Last week the budget could have helped but otherwise this month too record Call OI pushed the market back from one more new high attempted before the budget. On 14-July the net OI reached an all time record in Indian F&O history of 26k crore. Its cooled off a bit after the rally but is still high. So this one factor the record buying of call options by traders is a contrarian sign to remain negative and favor a correction first. How deep a correction depends on your bias. If you prefer to think we are in a bull market then we should do 38.2% which now coincides with the 20wma near 7080. If the wedge last week is any sign of the end of trend then it would be deeper. Wave count wise I would like to think either way that wave a completed near 7440 and we are bouncing back in wave b and wave c would at least take us to 7080. Note wave 2/B retraced 38.2% too so the rule of alternation would require more. The lower trendline of the channel is moving up and closer to 6950.
LONG TERM COUNT
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Long term Perspective and Basis: 07 July 2014
The Kondratieff cycle [Kf] is the only one that gives economic perspective to the business cycle and its impact on stock markets over a very long period of time. In 2009 I started writing the 'Indian Kondratieff articles available to all on this website explaining that we were in a Indian winter. That showed up in rising debts and falling growth. However the stock market correction has been stalled by domestic and global monetary stimulus. Even as the business cycle ended in 2008, 2013 is seeing a final surge in the Autumn bull due to expansionary monetary policies of the past. The new economic policy of the new government will soon be apparent. I believe it could be dis-inflationary but lets see it for what it is. We are in wave 5 breaking out of a 5 year triangle and the business cycle and patterns are mimicking that of 1992-1998 that were followed by the Y2K Bubble. I am calling this the 'Modi Bubble', every economic report is being named after Mr. Modi, he should put a TM after his name, even the Union Budget is now being called the 'Modi Budget' So this Autumn 5th wave should be aptly called the 'Modi Bubble'.
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