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- Created on 07 December 2012
- Written by Rohit Srivastava
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ELLIOTT WAVE THEORY is the foundation on which the framework of forecasting, human behavior reflected in stock prices across time frames, is built. Its combination with Technical analysis allows the generation of clear trading ideas and trend forecasting [candlesticks, momentum cycles, sentiment indicators, moving averages and automated trading systems]. Its combination with economic theory allows forecasting the investment environment. Its combination with the fundamental life cycle of an investment allows for long term stock picking. At Indiacharts we cover all these aspects of research while making a forecast.
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Rohit Srivastava: ' Indiacharts® is a live update of my market analysis for public reading. My views are based on my understanding of the markets after years of such analysis, since 1991. MORE ABOUT ME
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- Category: About
- Created on 10 June 2013
- Written by Rohit Srivastava
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- Category: Uncategorised
- Created on 01 April 2013
- Written by Rohit Srivastava
MARKET UPDATE: 31 MARCH 2014
NIFTY DAILY :- The Daily Nifty forecast of where the markets are headed available Inside Indiacharts
MEDIUM TERM
After spending two weeks at the 6500 level markets went past the parallel channel high. Prices are pushing against the quarterly Bollinger band at 6618, and that band will often give prices a push backwards before allowing it above. Still if Nifty despite its near term overbought readings holds above 6432 then weekly charts suggest that the bullish impulse wave count would target 7100 next. Weekly RSI is not overbought. I have shown the bullish alternate on the chart below. Above 6700 bears will have to question the possibility that wave Z is ending. Even if we do get a near term correction we will have to judge that its a wave II of 3 correction to buy into. Breaking 6432, 6250 should hold to keep the overall up trend in tact.
LONG TERM COUNT
THE LONG & SHORT REPORT :- The LSR is our detailed monthly forecast of where the markets are headed, including sentiment indicators, inter market analysis, wave counts and a global perspective . Report now available Inside Indiacharts.
Long term Perspective and Basis:
The latest Kondratieff cycle [Kf] is the only one that gives economic perspective to the business cycle and its impact on stock markets. That an Kf Autumn bull market started in 2001 there is no doubt in my mind now. I have discussed the possibility of a late Autumn bull market bubble like the Y2K repeating if India chose to stimulate the economy last year that possibility now seems ruled out as attempts at inflating the economy failed due to overheating. We continue down into an economic winter without that aberration, unless as a country we choose hyper-inflation. We have not been able to find a way to lower both inflation and interest rates while the private sector gets deeper into debt. The only solution was to attract global money to replace the contraction by government. In a weak global environment that looked difficult but alas we are at least trying. The results so far are negative.
Those hopeful of a bull market ignition should now have been pushed to the sidelines. Since the market has spent a lot of time at the upper end of the trading range in wave X, with participation from fewer and fewer sectors on the upside, the last leg down to be marked Z on the chart below will achieve all the targets of the Long term bear market before it ends in the next 1-2 years. Wave Z starts when all the sectors complete making Long term tops and decline and there is no defense.
The late summer bull market might have only helped in ending wave 3 [Y2000] of cycle degree as shown above. This has led to the belief that a similar event might recur today [Y2012-13]. The weakness of the broad market that continues today is not a signature of such a possibility and without broad market strength you don't get a bull market. I have seen 4 bull and bear markets since 1991 and no matter what anyone tells you bull markets are broad based and every company irrespective of fundamentals goes up. The rise of the fundamentally weak is a signature of bull market strength. So we remain in a bear market since 2008 in the index. Wave Y was anticipated to be an extended decline but truncated within 38.2% retracement of X. The recent X wave retraced 100% of Y in 2013. Wave Z down is likely to test the long term rising trendline at 12500 on the Sensex.
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