Long-Short Report -  

AUGUST 20, 2018 - A Reality Check

Exactly One month after my last report I have put out what might be

The most important Update on the Market Since Jan 2018

July Saw a repeat of many behavioural data points from the past

but August was a surprise, but that has not changed the Big Picture.

I spend a lot of time on the Long term picture and why this is an

important time given what is happening to EMs and the Dollar

22 Charts to give you the complete picture

The Long Short Report   

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India's Long Economic cycle -  

 The Indian economy like every other follows the Long wave economic cycle, a debt based model of finance. Based on this it is possible to forecast the future path of the economy by studying the 4 seasons of the Kondratieff cycle. I published the first paper on the Indian Kondratieff cycle in 2009 and have been posting related article as updates from time to time based on it. To understand where the economy is in the long wave read the detailed paper [it is FREE] here and then continue to READ THE LASTEST UPDATE 

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24 SEPTEMBER 2018

The weekly Elliott Wave commentary with Targets and levels is published every Sunday to Subscribers, This is only an excerpt of our observations from recent publications.

MEDIUM TERM

NIFTY ELLIOTT WAVE UPDATE 

Nifty carried from the upper end of the channel to the lower end at 11135 as anticipated. Now is the tricky part where short term after breaking 11135 we have to judge if the trend will be a cascading decline or a selling climax? A selling climax is a oversold condition caused by panic. The next trendline from the Demonetisation at 10900 worked off as a support for now and and needs to be watched closely for this. There are many other sentiment indicators we are watching to gauge the selling climax as the market worries about an NBFC capitulation.   READ MORE 

 LONG TERM  

THE LONG & SHORT REPORT :- The LSR is our detailed monthly forecast of where the markets are headed, including sentiment indicators, inter market analysis, wave counts and a global perspective . Report now available To Indiacharts Subscribers.

Long term Perspective and Basis: Updated 18 Dec 2017

Nifty continued its long term 5th wave formation into 2017. The pattern across indices has slowly morphed itself into a ending pattern especially on broad based indices like the Nifty 500 with perfect touch points. On the Nifty chart below however wave E of 5 is still away from the upper line and an early termination will lead to what we call truncation. As discussed in the Economic winter reports this points to a final winter bear market that lies ahead. The winter bear market has been hard to spot as the nominal index continues higher. It can give us the slip in nominal terms but not relative to Inflation, USD, or Gold. If the 5th wave does manage to extend it would be on the back of inflationary forces that have now become apparent, however inflation adjusted returns of the Nifty since 2008 remain negative. Nifty adjusted for Inflation and Gold and USD are discussed under the Economic updates section of the website. In nominal terms the ending pattern may turn into a running triangle and result in a rally if the slowly rising inflation turns into a trend of rapidly rising prices. This is not what I expect. I expect to see stagflation some time in the second half of next year as commodity prices continue to advance in the midst of the dollar bear market that has already started. I have discussed these trends extensively in my podcasts on Soundcloud so do not miss them. The entire rise from 2009-2017 so far appears like a 3-3-3-3-3, structure, and thus marked as A-B-C-D-E. If you want to mark an impulse consider 1-2-3-4-5 done where 5<3<1. The conclusion is the same. The 2009-2017 advance in Nifty is the slowest in Indian stock market history and that should tell you something about its nature. The record highs do not change the big picture. Right now I hold my contrarian stance long term even if we do make one more new record after the Gujarat elections.

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