Long-Short Report -  

JUNE 20, 2018 - A Top Down Analysis

ONCE again the Broad Markets led the way down After Our May report

The most Bullish Sentimental extreme in Equity Investing, An Indian Economic Winter is a Reality

What does it mean for Stock Markets, as risks spread 

From Reflation to Deflation

From Bonds to Currencies

Global Equities as An Asset Class are under Fire - Stay Ahead

17 Eye Catching Charts that speak to you - Updated as they change

THE BIG SHORT 2018 - What does the Market Look LIke?

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India's Long Economic cycle -  

 The Indian economy like every other follows the Long wave economic cycle, a debt based model of finance. Based on this it is possible to forecast the future path of the economy by studying the 4 seasons of the Kondratieff cycle. I published the first paper on the Indian Kondratieff cycle in 2009 and have been posting related article as updates from time to time based on it. To understand where the economy is in the long wave read the detailed paper [it is FREE] here and then continue to READ THE LASTEST UPDATE  

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16 JULY 2018

The weekly Elliott Wave commentary with Targets and levels is published every Sunday to Subscribers, This is only an excerpt of our observations from recent publications.

MEDIUM TERM

NIFTY ELLIOTT WAVE UPDATE 

Nifty came close to making a new all time high even as the Sensex actually did, however, in the last two days of the week the Midcaps resumed their selling spree and ended with inverted hammer candlestick patterns. The chart below shows the RSI indicator on daily charts of the Nifty Midcap 100 with a reverse divergence that has short term bearish implications from the recent highs. A reverse divergence is when the lower highs in the index/security result in higher highs in the RSI. This is usually a signal of trend continuation and not trend reversal. The Mid/Small caps or the broad market beyond the top stocks will remain the main area of concern for the weeks ahead   READ MORE 

 LONG TERM  

THE LONG & SHORT REPORT :- The LSR is our detailed monthly forecast of where the markets are headed, including sentiment indicators, inter market analysis, wave counts and a global perspective . Report now available To Indiacharts Subscribers.

Long term Perspective and Basis: Updated 18 Dec 2017

Nifty continued its long term 5th wave formation into 2017. The pattern across indices has slowly morphed itself into a ending pattern especially on broad based indices like the Nifty 500 with perfect touch points. On the Nifty chart below however wave E of 5 is still away from the upper line and an early termination will lead to what we call truncation. As discussed in the Economic winter reports this points to a final winter bear market that lies ahead. The winter bear market has been hard to spot as the nominal index continues higher. It can give us the slip in nominal terms but not relative to Inflation, USD, or Gold. If the 5th wave does manage to extend it would be on the back of inflationary forces that have now become apparent, however inflation adjusted returns of the Nifty since 2008 remain negative. Nifty adjusted for Inflation and Gold and USD are discussed under the Economic updates section of the website. In nominal terms the ending pattern may turn into a running triangle and result in a rally if the slowly rising inflation turns into a trend of rapidly rising prices. This is not what I expect. I expect to see stagflation some time in the second half of next year as commodity prices continue to advance in the midst of the dollar bear market that has already started. I have discussed these trends extensively in my podcasts on Soundcloud so do not miss them. The entire rise from 2009-2017 so far appears like a 3-3-3-3-3, structure, and thus marked as A-B-C-D-E. If you want to mark an impulse consider 1-2-3-4-5 done where 5<3<1. The conclusion is the same. The 2009-2017 advance in Nifty is the slowest in Indian stock market history and that should tell you something about its nature. The record highs do not change the big picture. Right now I hold my contrarian stance long term even if we do make one more new record after the Gujarat elections.

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