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Long-Short Report -
MAKRET OUTLOOK - 15 AUGUST 2017 - Published - NIFTY INR GOLD
Time for a Clean India for the Financial Sector. Happy Independence Day ?
On the eve of India's 70th independence day Anniversary. I do believe that India is a strongly free country when I hear about the laws that dictate everyday life in say the US. That said we remain a copy cat country. Not just films and music our financial system and the way we manage it with a central bank appears to be slowly mimicking the western models. The good news is we have not gone so far down the road as the rest of the world has and we can chose a different path. Time for central planners to choose a different path and an outcome that will bring us on top. Do not squander the demographic dividend by making them indebted with consumption debts. Wishful thinking looking at Saturdays Economic survey recommendations. The dividend is best spent on rebuilding India, on their terms and the India that they want to inherit, not the messed up one that was left behind. This Independence Day wish to see a clean India movement for its financial sector. Is Modiji listening?
Three Major Marco Trends Driving Markets.
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India's Long Economic cycle -
The Indian economy like every other follows the Long wave economic cycle, a debt based model of finance. Based on this it is possible to forecast the future path of the economy by studying the 4 seasons of the Kondratieff cycle. I published the first paper on the Indian Kondratieff cycle in 2009 and have been posting related article as updates from time to time based on it. To understand where the economy is in the long wave read the detailed paper [it is FREE] here and then continue to READ THE LASTEST UPDATE
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- Details
- Category: India Stock Market
- Written by Rohit Srivastava
15 AUGUST 2017
The weekly Elliott Wave commentary with Targets and levels is published every Sunday to Subscribers, This is only an excerpt.
MEDIUM TERM
How many negative divergences before a trend reversal. There is no rule except that it would be in line with the general trend for that market. So 2015 saw a new record. now 2017 has two already as prices sell off from the upper end of the rising channel. The loss of momentum is accompanied by falling A/D ratios that are weakening the market from inside. .... READ MORE
LONG TERM
THE LONG & SHORT REPORT :- The LSR is our detailed monthly forecast of where the markets are headed, including sentiment indicators, inter market analysis, wave counts and a global perspective . Report now available TO Indiacharts Subscribers.
Long term Perspective and Basis: Updated 29 MAY 2017
Sensex completed a long term 5th wave in 2015. Midcap index since then has transformed into an ending diagonal pattern [3-3-3-3-3], structure on weekly charts. Nifty could have developed the same but did not. The next best alternate is to mark the two as expanded flat patterns. The rise from the 2016 low is a-b-c as part of wave b of a expanded flat. The expanded flat is the only structure that allows for a new high in wave b. But with a limit of 138.2% of wave a. In very large time frames 161.8% is seen but is more rare. So 123.6% and 138.2% are two possible projections in this pattern. 123.6% is now at 31800. But the thing about 5th waves also is that they do not follow script. They can truncate extend or fail and therefore difficult. The end point is best trailed with a number of your choice. The out performance of Midcaps over NIfty for a prolonged period creates a large market divergence that has gone on longer than ever before. Such divergences are often a advance warning of a major trend reversal at hand. Many may want to argue that 1994-2001 is wave 2 and not wave 4, however based on my assessment of Economic cycles as discussed in the Economic cycles section of the website this is a better assessment. You will need back data going back to the 1940s to get the full picture on this. The existence of a triangle from 2008-2013 allows us to mark that as wave IV of the structure. Till proven otherwise wave V of 5 has ended completing a supercycle degree Bull market that started with the inception of the RBI in 1934. This is discussed in more detail in the Economic winter reports. If the 5th wave does manage to extend it would be on the back of inflationary forces that have now become apparent but inflation adjusted returns of the Nifty since 2008 remain negative. Nifty adjusted for Inflation and Gold are discussed under the Economic updates section of the website.
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