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ELLIOTT WAVE THEORY is the foundation on which the framework of forecasting, human behavior reflected in stock prices across time frames, is built. Its combination with Technical analysis allows the generation of clear trading ideas and trend forecasting [candlesticks, momentum cycles, sentiment indicators, moving averages and automated trading systems]. Its combination with economic theory allows forecasting the investment environment. Its combination with the fundamental life cycle of an investment allows for long term stock picking. At Indiacharts we cover all these aspects of research while making a forecast.

MY MISSION : QUALITY EQUITY RESEARCH FOR EVERYONE : In a world overwhelmed by information media news and chaos, where research has become a support function, with the object of maintaining information and generating reports, true forecasting will find its place in the Sun. In trading its all about sticking with the method through thick and thin, generating trades on an ongoing basis with the larger trend in mind. In investment its about finding a few ideas to hang onto. You don't need a 100 investment ideas to make money. Just 2 will do. Nuts...

		Rohit Srivastava: ' Indiacharts® is a live update of my market analysis for public reading. My views are based on my understanding of the markets after years of such analysis, since 1991. MORE ABOUT ME  Visit my network on the left and share it. Start your Indiacharts experience JOIN the free mailing list. OR Join Indiacharts Insiders

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LONG TERM COUNT 

THE LONG & SHORT REPORT :- NOV 2013 forecast has been published with 33 new charts. Report now available to Insiders

Long term Perspective and Basis: 

The latest Kondratieff cycle [Kf] is the only one that gives economic perspective to the business cycle and its impact on stock markets. That an Kf Autumn bull market started in 2001 there is no doubt in my mind now. I have discussed the possibility of a late Autumn bull market bubble like the Y2K repeating if India chose to stimulate the economy last year that possibility now seems ruled out as the market has given it up reflecting that we continue down into an economic winter without that aberration. We have not been able to find a way to lower both inflation and interest rates while the private sector gets deeper into debt. The only solution was to attract global money to replace the contraction by government. In a weak global environment that looked difficult but alas we are at least trying. The results so far are negative.

Those hopeful of a bull market ignition should now have been pushed to the sidelines. Since the market has spent a lot of time at the upper end of the trading range in wave X, with participation from fewer and fewer sectors on the upside, the last leg down to be marked Z on the chart below will achieve all the targets of the Long term bear market before it ends in the next 1-2 years. Wave Z starts when all the sectors complete making Long term tops and decline.

The late summer bull market might have only helped in ending wave 3 [Y2000] of cycle degree as shown above. This has led to the belief that a similar event might recur today [Y2012-13]. The weakness of the broad market that continues today is not a signature of such a possibility and without broad market strength you don't get a bull market. I have seen 4 bull and bear markets since 1991 and no matter what anyone tells you bull markets are broad based and every company irrespective of fundamentals goes up. The rise of the fundamentally weak is a signature of bull market strength. So we remain in a bear market since 2008 in the index. Wave Y was anticipated to be an extended decline but truncated within 38.2% retracement of X. The recent X wave retraced 100% of Y in 2013. Wave Z down is likely to test the long term rising trendline at 12500 on the Sensex.

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