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Latest - Nifty Up Bonds Up Amid Volatility, 09 April 2018
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- Details
- Category: About
- Written by Rohit Srivastava
Long-Short Report -
The Big - Beginning - HAPPY NEW YEAR 2018
The Mega Trend that I spotted Just got bigger
I spent an entire issue on it to give it the right perspective
The Macro trends have been in place and slowly moving as expected
The Individual Asset Class have lead lag effects
And Now this week we just started a Major bull market
So Today; I spent 20 charts on not just the Nifty but the Asset class that matters
A new Value Wave Investment and High Beta plays to capture the most of what is coming
With little hints and you have been a regular reader of my views
Don't waste time and hop on to read the Latest Copy of My Dec 2017
Or should I say - -
2018 Market Outlook report
The Long Short Report
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And Stay Up to date everyday on the progress of these Macro trends
India's Long Economic cycle -
The Indian economy like every other follows the Long wave economic cycle, a debt based model of finance. Based on this it is possible to forecast the future path of the economy by studying the 4 seasons of the Kondratieff cycle. I published the first paper on the Indian Kondratieff cycle in 2009 and have been posting related article as updates from time to time based on it. To understand where the economy is in the long wave read the detailed paper [it is FREE] here and then continue to READ THE LASTEST UPDATE
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- Details
- Category: India Stock Market
- Written by Rohit Srivastava
16 APRIL 2018
The weekly Elliott Wave commentary with Targets and levels is published every Sunday to Subscribers, This is only an excerpt of our observations from recent publications.
MEDIUM TERM
Nifty weekly channel. A reverse channel is when you take a trendline of the highs and use the parallel channel at the bottom to find support. For Nifty on an arithmetic scale this line comes in at 9884. Very close to the recent low. In short we did not break this support line. The March swing high at 10631 is the first resistance level. Can prices make it to the upper channel line? Last week I discussed in detail the long term wave count and reasons for it in this YouTube video [https://youtu.be/tSBVe2xMk5M], READ MORE
LONG TERM
THE LONG & SHORT REPORT :- The LSR is our detailed monthly forecast of where the markets are headed, including sentiment indicators, inter market analysis, wave counts and a global perspective . Report now available To Indiacharts Subscribers.
Long term Perspective and Basis: Updated 18 Dec 2017
Nifty continued its long term 5th wave formation into 2017. The pattern across indices has slowly morphed itself into a ending pattern especially on broad based indices like the Nifty 500 with perfect touch points. On the Nifty chart below however wave E of 5 is still away from the upper line and an early termination will lead to what we call truncation. As discussed in the Economic winter reports this points to a final winter bear market that lies ahead. The winter bear market has been hard to spot as the nominal index continues higher. It can give us the slip in nominal terms but not relative to Inflation, USD, or Gold. If the 5th wave does manage to extend it would be on the back of inflationary forces that have now become apparent, however inflation adjusted returns of the Nifty since 2008 remain negative. Nifty adjusted for Inflation and Gold and USD are discussed under the Economic updates section of the website. In nominal terms the ending pattern may turn into a running triangle and result in a rally if the slowly rising inflation turns into a trend of rapidly rising prices. This is not what I expect. I expect to see stagflation some time in the second half of next year as commodity prices continue to advance in the midst of the dollar bear market that has already started. I have discussed these trends extensively in my podcasts on Soundcloud so do not miss them. The entire rise from 2009-2017 so far appears like a 3-3-3-3-3, structure, and thus marked as A-B-C-D-E. If you want to mark an impulse consider 1-2-3-4-5 done where 5<3<1. The conclusion is the same. The 2009-2017 advance in Nifty is the slowest in Indian stock market history and that should tell you something about its nature. The record highs do not change the big picture. Right now I hold my contrarian stance long term even if we do make one more new record after the Gujarat elections.
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