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US 10 Year Treasury notes

I have not written about it in a while. But my outlook was that wave 5 down in Bonds will start and the US 10 year has been falling with a rising stock market. Now rising commodities prices are also leading to expectations of coming rate increases. Funny thing is that is not what you will read in the news. As news media are reading into weak inflation numbers for a sign that there will be fewer rate hikes. To me it is not about few or more but the trend. The trend is down for bonds and up for crude. Yes at some point it is going to matter to markets that bond yields are rising and at that point we have to take note of it. Till then wait and watch.

notes 190418

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