- Category: About
- Written by Rohit Srivastava
THE MISSION : QUALITY EQUITY ANALYSIS FOR EVERYONE : In a world overwhelmed by information media news and chaos, where research has become a support function for maintaining information and generating reports making buy/sell/hold recommendations, true forecasting will find its place in the Sun. We believe understanding the market is more important and that does not require a micro study, but a Macro study of the environment. In trading its all about sticking with the method through thick and thin, generating trades on an ongoing basis with the larger trend in mind. In investment its about finding a few ideas to hang onto with limited downside risk. You don't need a 100 investment ideas to make money. Just 2 will do. Nuts...
Indiacharts® or Indiacharts.com® is dedicated towards “Complete Market Forecasting” using Technical analysis and its extention into the fields of economic and business data analysis to assess General market conditions. Forecasting is based on past data be it historical trading prices and volumes or economic and published financial data of companies. We do not involve ourselves with meeting companies or businesses in making our forecasts. It is based on publicly available information. This is coined as Alternative Investing in Professional circles.
ELLIOTT WAVE THEORY is used in conjunction with this data to plot long term economic and corporate business cycles of various markets but primarily the Indian market. Once long term cycles are plotted they are used to forecast the coming trends and drill down to the shorter term trends as well. Complete technical analysis involves use of Elliott Waves along with Momentum, Trend and Sentiment indicators. Its extention into economic analysis resulted in the Kondratieff cycle [Coined by Nikolai Kondratiev] and into company/business cycle analysis resulted in Value wave cycle [Coined by me].
Indiacharts uses a blog format for disseminating daily weekly and monthly updates on the above to readers. The work is based on Trend Analysis done by Rohit Srivastava based on the above models since 1991.
Indiacharts started as a weekly update in 2001 and over the recent years there are daily and monthly updates and includes commodities currencies and stocks as well. Some of these market updates are now available only to “Indiacharts Insiders” a subscriber only section that has access to specified blog posts while other blog posts remain free for access to all visitors of the website.
Indiacharts generates the highest quality of work used by Professional investors and Institutional investors in daily decision making and asset allocation strategies. However in our endeavor at greater investor awareness about alternative market research and wider access to higher quality work Indiacharts remained completely free for many years. Now some of the sections are part of “Indiacharts Insiders” a paid part of the blog that costs only Rs500 per month to access. The low cost makes it affordable to all class of investors be it students of financial markets or HNIs or Institutional investors.
The object of creating a paid section is to be able to meet the expanding demands from readers, widen its reach and to continue to raise the bar v/s what India’s research Industry has to offer.
ABOUT ROHIT SRIVASTAVA AND INDIACHARTS®
Since the first time I set my eyes upon prices and price movements in the markets the use of visual representation of price movement to identify trends became the obvious passion. In the early 90's though the tools available in India were limited and most books needed to be imported. Most of that has seen a revolution.
From my early learning of the Dow theory and momentum trading I was never satisfied with the results as momentum tools were great to follow trends but but they could not identify trend change or false signals. From 1994-1997 my exposure to fundamental and balance sheet research brought out the gaps between value and trend that needed to be filled. In 1999 I introduced my self to Elliott Wave analysis and that changed everything. The strike rates and accuracy moved up considerably in trading and forecasts. Elliott Waves [EW] capture societal trends and the points of change in the mass public mood. Doing so it is the only technical tool that has forecasting capability v/s other tools that are trend following in nature.
I started to read about the Kondratieff cycle in 1997 but did not understand how to measure it and the key components of the cycle till 2007. I also had doubts about where India stood due to lack of historical data. I finally put together backdated Indian economic data to write about it in 2009. Having lived the 90s cycle that recession almost felt like a depression as most asset prices had deep corrections. Thus it was possible to assume that 2001 marked the beginning of a new Supercycle bull market[70 years] but the Kondratieff cycle data suggests otherwise.
Similarly with the start of the 2001 it was an obvious value buy market, but was a great point of learning the conjunction of wave structures with classical fundamental ratings of companies. The standards used by the industry were telling of their status on the longer term horizon. The life cycle of a company thus coincides with the wave structure of stock within a cycle degree move. The performance of the forecasts made back then give me great confidence in the Value wave model. However its application has to be done at the right time. And that is at the beginning of a bullish Kondratieff cycle.
Once you have the idea you know its worth sharing. Especially after seeing the huge losses of investors during the post 1994 economic downturn there was a sheer need to do something for retail investors. Unfortunately that's a mammoth task of learning and relearning for them. Not just about markets but money how its created and controlled through the governments fiscal and RBIs monetary tools and its effect on our economic well being. The 2008 bear market around the world even more highlights this need.
'INDIACHARTS' my free view/blog and analysis is a small contribution to keeping people informed about what the wave patterns and investment cycles have to say about the future started in 2001. To those who are willing to pay heed to the wave forecasts it can protect you from financial disasters, and then actually help you create some wealth.
In my experimentation with markets led me to the belief that absolute returns and not relative returns were the way forward. The markets offer trading opportunities year after year to earn 20-30% every year. To capture those trends and then use the power of compounding over time would anyway see you outperform. But to spend all your time and energy to try and beat an index at its own job is a waste of resources both mental and financial. Competition among Asset managers however has given way to this trend which forces long term investors to trade and vice versa which is principally wrong and self defeating to the objective. There is a time to be in a Long/Short strategy and a time to be in Long only investments.
For Long term investors Value investing with a 5-10 year horizon is best and should be done at the right time in the Long wave cycle called the Kondratieff cycle. The Spring and Autumn are the two times in the cycle that these investors make money. In other part of the cycle you can win only from defensive bottom up strategies or best focus on other asset classes like gold and real estate. These cycles are explained in great detail under the economic cycles section of the website.
That brings me to what I do now. After small stints as a Research Analyst with the print media [DSJ] and an investment company [Sanwa Finance] my longest career is with Sharekhan Ltd. since 2001 Initially in the advisory role as a Market Analyst, then Head of research and Market Strategist and now in charge of a unique product line that focuses on the above objective of Absolute returns. Managed Futures a/c under the PMS structure of SEBI for clients with Zero leverage [100% margin] and Zero AMC fees!!
The object here is only to highlight what absolute return strategies can do for long term investors in terms of growing their wealth. The key however will lie in having the right strategy to capture returns from market movements every year and manage risk within defined limits. Technical analysis provides the tools to do so and my experience with the subject is so far very rewarding. The last decade has seen many investment products but more often than not the sales pitch is based on relative returns or Buy and Hold. Investors need to be more inquisitive about what they expect from an investment plan before investing. In most cases like Mutual Funds the onus of an exit from the market continues to lie with the investor who believes that the professionals will take that call. Knowing that the risk is still yours will allow you to act accordingly where needed. A forecast
With INDIACHARTS I hope to keep investors and traders as informed as I can through periodical updates on market trends not just in India but around the world and in commodities and currencies that act as indicators of financial change.
I might add that Long/Short strategies like the one above are the flavor of the day in the sense that I have proven them to be more profitable than buy and hold in the current market conditions. But asset allocation must change with the markets. When the markets are ready for a long term/cycle degree bull market, Buy and Hold strategies would do very well again. The Kondratieff cycle and Value wave cycle line of reports were published keeping in mind this changing dynamic and those cycle studies should be able to point out when and where investments have to be made as times change in the future.
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