Inter Market Analysis

Inter market analysis is a series of articles studying related segments of the market to identify lead lags between trends in each segment. This can often forewarn you of impending changes in trend and allow for planning of required action based on it. For example midcaps v/s large caps, currencies v/s commodities and US markets v/s European markets and so on. In a global environment inter-market relationships are not restricted to a country but between countries and their respective asset classes as well.


Bitcoin has been reacting from the upper end of the range and so it did the last time it got there. Even though it did not fall to the lower line as projected, this retest puts us back at what is a critical resistance so near term again watch if prices do react from the 8200-8300 range downwards. If yes then it would open up room for a deep cut again. The lower trendline is at 5300$.

btc usd


I usually look at US steel for the trend in Metal stocks but somehow the stock has not moved much even as holding support. So the real move has happened in Alcoa the largest Aluminium producer if I am not wrong. And the stocks is a series of impulse waves and in the latter part of wave 3. Many more moves left before we can say this is complete. The next move should be from the lower end of the channel near 40 to the upper end near 75. A big move indeed. And that would be wave 5 of 3 of 3.

alcoa 221117

US 2 year yields

The two year yields have been rising everyday. This while other yields are trying to move higher but are pausing near previous highs. Either the 2 year is a flash or the 10 year will quickly do a catch up.

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