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Inter Market Analysis

Inter market analysis is a series of articles studying related segments of the market to identify lead lags between trends in each segment. This can often forewarn you of impending changes in trend and allow for planning of required action based on it. For example midcaps v/s large caps, currencies v/s commodities and US markets v/s European markets and so on. In a global environment inter-market relationships are not restricted to a country but between countries and their respective asset classes as well.

Relative Rupee

In case you did not notice the INR pair, the USDINR, has note exactly been falling like the rest of the worlds currency pairs. The relative rupee is the RS of the USDINR with the DXY or dollar index. This is rising since April. Meaning that on a relative basis holding steady the INR is actually weaker than the dollar. We in effect have a currency devaluation quietly. 

inr-190717

US 10 year T Notes

The 10 year note has retraced almost 50% and wave c=a is nearly done. wave ii should be near completion and wave iii down is to unfold next soon.

notes-190717

BSE 200

Is it possible to count the rise from 2009 as 5 waves? I usually take 2008-2013 as a triangle. But if I go by all the impulse wave markings of the street for each rally since 2009 it can be done as 9 legs are complete. In 2015 when I called the market top I used the Arithmetic scale chart of the BSE 200 or broader indices to project that the upper end of the channel was reached and we may go to the lower end. After 12 months down a move up started that after 2 years and adding 4 more waves [yellow extention] has brought us back to the upper end of the channel on the arithmetic scale. So it is a key resistance zone as much as given the number of waves completing the blow markings show we have 5+4=9 waves that can be marked as complete 5 waves with a 3rd wave extended for the long term 5th wave [circle]. Let us see what unfolds here.

BSE200-180717

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