Inter Market Analysis

Inter market analysis is a series of articles studying related segments of the market to identify lead lags between trends in each segment. This can often forewarn you of impending changes in trend and allow for planning of required action based on it. For example midcaps v/s large caps, currencies v/s commodities and US markets v/s European markets and so on. In a global environment inter-market relationships are not restricted to a country but between countries and their respective asset classes as well.

US 10 Year Treasury notes

The oversold reading did not even last for a day for US bonds and everyone is in panic again. But using channels till this low holds why cant wave 4 up develop for the 10 year. It can. So ideally the 10 year notes will rally to the upper channel line and then start wave 5 down in the coming days. This maybe temporary relief to the nerves of everyone in panic over rates. The wave 5 down is coming.


US 30 Year Treasury Bonds

US bond markets bounced back in response to the falling stock market, rather than as a relief that the bond market panic may have paused. The bounce however is wave 4 in the larger trend as shown and wave 4 consolidation can last for a few weeks before wave 5 down starts. So I am not sure what it means for stocks immediately though it should be a relief that rates have paused their advance but do not get complacent about it.

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Bitcoin has a field day. Yes the Bubble popped last month. Yes it is in a bear market. Yes it will survive. Bear markets can last a year or more after a bubble. Only people who own Bitcoin are bullish isn't that funny? If you do not own it you do not understand it. If you own it you are an expert about the subject. Emotions still running high here.

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