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Inter Market Analysis

Inter market analysis is a series of articles studying related segments of the market to identify lead lags between trends in each segment. This can often forewarn you of impending changes in trend and allow for planning of required action based on it. For example midcaps v/s large caps, currencies v/s commodities and US markets v/s European markets and so on. In a global environment inter-market relationships are not restricted to a country but between countries and their respective asset classes as well.

CBOE VIX

Despite all the Rhetoric from trade wars to Syria and FB, the US VIX did not get past the high it made in early March, that would have been the real sign that the market is in panic. Nope. We are making lower lows short term from there. Fearful or Fearless? Less fear then before for sure, a divergence of sorts that short term is positive.

vix 130418

US 10 Year Treasury notes

US stocks rise and bonds fall as they should. The inverse relationship seen all of last year resumed. But in Feb for a brief period both fell together. If that happens again we will have trouble again. Wave wise US bonds are already in wave 5 down and should continue to make new lows from here with rising yields to new 52 week highs in the weeks ahead. The question is will stocks rally on this and till when?

bonds 130418

BitCoin

Long time no Bits on my blog, so here goes. A 3 wave fall concluded on BTCUSD and that means that bitcoin now has some upside either to the trendline at 8900. Or the second scenario where it goes to the parallel line of the lows in a larger X wave to 12400 again before rolling over. Rolling over - is based on the idea that this is a bear market for BTC, also we have not completed wave Z for any more meaningful reversal. Remember BTC is banned in India for trade so this is for educational purpose only.

bitcoin 120418

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