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Inter Market Analysis

Inter market analysis is a series of articles studying related segments of the market to identify lead lags between trends in each segment. This can often forewarn you of impending changes in trend and allow for planning of required action based on it. For example midcaps v/s large caps, currencies v/s commodities and US markets v/s European markets and so on. In a global environment inter-market relationships are not restricted to a country but between countries and their respective asset classes as well.

Indian 10 Year Gsec

The FM States as per ET - ''India on Road to Fiscal Consolidation'' on a day when bond yields hit 7.17, and opened today at 7.21, rising relentlessly ahead of the FED. I just looked up that FIIs were net sellers of Debt for most of November, however so far in December they are buyers. This needs to be watched as the Elephant in the room. At one point in the year Debt flows were bigger than equity flows. The chart of the 10 year G Sec yields shows a third wave in progress that may have a long way to to. Next resistance is at 7.33 and 38.2% retracement at 7.44.

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BitCoin

On the eve of trading on the CBOE, Bitcoin has formed a triangle on the chart below and as explained before triangles are typical wave 4 patterns and this allows for one more move higher before we complete wave 5. Wave 5 is subdividing into i-i-iii-iv-v, and we are in wave iii now.

btcusd111217

BitCoin

Is Bitcoin a Bubble? It smells like one for the time being, but the music goes on till it stops. So before I update the wave count here is a chart of Wipro in the Midst of the Y2K tech bubble. While the the Sensex moved up from 5100 to 6100, but Wipro from Nov to Feb of that year went up 10 fold and from Jan to Feb 5 fold. And a large part of the move saw the price in the upper 8% circuit limit that was prevalent at that time.

wipro081217

So is it any surprise that in less than a month that I started writing about it we are up almost 4 fold? So I publish as it catches attention and till it completes wave 5 of this move from 5426. And after yesterdays channel chart that projected the 5th wave to 15500, we did not stop for a wave 4 deep correction but broke out of the channel to a 17000 high. So the narrow wave 4 correction maybe part of a running triangle in wave 5 and the ending diagonal subsequently can be wave 5 for now. A daily close down today from yesterday would complete a 5 wave rise on the daily chart for this leg at least. So 17130 might become the next significant level till it holds. 

btcusd081217

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