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Inter Market Analysis

Inter market analysis is a series of articles studying related segments of the market to identify lead lags between trends in each segment. This can often forewarn you of impending changes in trend and allow for planning of required action based on it. For example midcaps v/s large caps, currencies v/s commodities and US markets v/s European markets and so on. In a global environment inter-market relationships are not restricted to a country but between countries and their respective asset classes as well.

US 10 Year Treasury notes

US 10 year yields are in wave iv of a third and forming a possible triangle. The next move should be to new highs in the yields towards 3.20 % next

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India 10 year Government Securities

While everyone is watching the Karnataka elections, they are missing out the 1900 stocks that declined today, the new high in USDINR and the wave 3 of 5 that started in Indian bond yields, now pointing to 8.271% next in the coming 2 weeks.

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BitCoin

At the vertical red line I noted that Bitcoin was giving a lead indication by Topping out months in Advance to US stocks. AFter that the two have mostly moved up and down together as a clear reflection the global liquidity sentiment was behind the moves. The wave count of Bitcoin now indicates the next major leg down in wave (Y) has started and wave C of (Y) is going to break the 6000 mark. minor wave iii started today after wave B retraced 61.8% of A. The question is whether this is your lead indicator again of a coming decline in US stocks as everyone goes on to bet on the recent trendline breakout. Don't ignore this indicator of liquidity.

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