Inter Market Analysis

Inter market analysis is a series of articles studying related segments of the market to identify lead lags between trends in each segment. This can often forewarn you of impending changes in trend and allow for planning of required action based on it. For example midcaps v/s large caps, currencies v/s commodities and US markets v/s European markets and so on. In a global environment inter-market relationships are not restricted to a country but between countries and their respective asset classes as well.

US 10 year T notes

No change here - the rising 10 year notes, meaning lower US yields continue to indicate the short term risk off mode of US markets.


Amazon - AMZN

Don't You Dare this Amazon - but I would not have looked at the chart if it was not all over the news for the new record in price. Now if something is being watched so closely that it does not get missed by all the media it must carry a lot of emotion with it. The chart from the 2015 low marks as a 5 wave rise, where 3<1, and so 5<1 must also be true. The move up yesterday kissed the trendline from the wave 1 and 3 tops. So is wave 5 over. The weekly chart shows us to be in wave v of 5, so this is the final wave in the structure so far. So watch the next turn lower in Amazon closely as it can mark the end of a 5 wave rise and a correction. But that has not yet happened but we could be close.


Even on a Quarterly chart from 2001 it can look like this. Wave 5 of 5 up in progress.


US Steel

I have used the US Steel chart many times [even before the launch of the new site], to state my view on the metals sector. So In Feb of 2016 for the first time I published it here showing the completion of 5 waves down in wave C and thus a bottom in the metals sector. This was against everyday falling metals stocks back home. So more recently we have not seen a big correction in domestic metals stocks even as metal prices have corrected. The US Steel chart shows that the stock went from 6$ to 40$ in what maybe only wave 1 or A of a larger advance. We have seen a correction to 66% retracement in wave 2 or C down. What should then follow is wave 3 or C up next. C=A goes as far as 120. The rising channel below has room till 70$. And we recently bottom near 18.55. Till we hold these lows and this key retracement mark the trend for the metals should again be up. This should be important.


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