Brazil

Early signs of a 3 wave rise completing in some global equity markets are now showing up. Brazil has had a big rally and has retraced 61.8% of the previous fall and is back near the previous wave 4 area as well. The rise is 3 waves and the question is whether the 5 wave decline marked the start of a new leg down or the end of a trend [Remember wave C can also be a 5 wave decline]. This level will be important to determine that. If the 5 wave decline was a trend, then another 5 wave decline should start from here and head to new lows. 61.8% is near 50400. We still have to see daily momentum indicators confirm the trend down.