18 Jan 2019 ‚óŹ 04:27 AM

The Dow and US markets have become about clear cut directional moves, fast and big in both directions. I know you wish Indian Nifty moved the same way, it is not clear why they are not except for something to do with options markets, after all stocks are falling everyday. The Nifty game has not been figured but someday we will all know about it. Something is not right there. That said look at the Dow, a 78.6% retracement in November in days and now a 66% retracement of the next decline. The best interpretation right now is that of a series of impulse waves. You can argue A-B-C done but just wait before you do that. Reason is that the long term rising channels were broken in the last quarter of 2018 ending with a negative year. Those confirm that a long term top is in place and should be taken as the base case for making any forecast. This means that we are now overdue for the US to start wave 3 down. And since Asia and India have not fallen with the US in December, we are all in wave 2's of various degrees, so it will be a global 3rd wave decline now when it develops.

dow 180119

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