Dow Theory

This is a Dow Theory moment. And everyone who is a technician would have been introduced to it at some time. Many are writing posts about this classic event that started it all. The classic Dow theory confirmation technique. When a new high/low in the Dow is not confirmed by the Transports or the Utilities indices it is a non confirmation of trend. Also if the other indices diverge from the main trend it is a warning of an impending trend change. Now these are longer term studies and markets take their own time to confirm. But its been along time, since the Utilities index peaked in Jan 2015, and in the last week once more made new lower lows.

 

I recently read a piece about the Utilities not having a great track record at prediction market moves. But the Transports does. And the Dow transports that had stopped falling last month has again broken to a new lower low. These two indices continue to lead the way down even as the DJIA and Nasdaq are closer to their highs. Each time these indices pause the question is who will catch up with whom, but the last few days decline has started fresh moves down that call for the DJIA to catch up with Transports and Utilities.