Nasdaq Composite

2 May 2022 ‚óŹ 07:57 AM

No one likes a bubble to pop and end. So we take our time to acknowledge it. My own chart over a year ago discussed this possibility and comparison with the Y2K bubble. In the 5th wave of bubbles, prices break out of the rising channel on the upside and go up vertically till it ends, after the channel target is achieved [projection based on the size of the channel]. Then the decline first goes back inside the channel and then down to below the previous wave 4 low before it is over. Is a similar event repeating? The chart looks similar after 2020, the year of the pandemic. The Nasdaq bottomed at the lower channel then rallied to breakout and achieve the channel target. Now it is in free fall. On Friday the Nasdaq closed below the neckline of an H&S pattern on the monthly chart. This points to a further significant decline that will push us back to the lower end of the channel. Like it or not it looks like the FED has priced the Nasdaq bubble again. I say again because they raised rates for the 2 years into the tech bubble that pushed up the dollar till it all popped. This time it did not take that long after the FED pivot for things to fall apart. Now deal with it.

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