S&P 500

10 Nov 2018 ‚óŹ 02:48 PM

US indices have bounced back in varying degrees making for mixed signals. Wave wise it appears that the preferred case is wave 2 up for all. but retracements are now very different, with the Dow near 78.6% and the S&P near the 61.8% mark, still c<a which is ok. But will the rallies end at varying retracements with failed c's and if wave c extends some more it will become very deep. So having said that if we are in wave 2 it can end anytime now as the wave 4 high in the S&P has been touched and not more is needed. But the Nasdaq still has catching up to do so it maybe be given some time to do so.

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All said to most Elliott wave analysts including me the US markets decline in Feb and in Oct both appear like clear 5 wave declines and that should mean not more new highs. Still apart from the NYSE Composite most US indices eventually ended up at a new high again. So now again Oct shows a very convincing 5 wave decline, meaning no new highs and we are in wave 2, but just in case we are wrong this maybe the next best count to consider. Wave E of an ending pattern is forming and we will go to touch the trendline of the previous two highs that stretches to one more new high. That maybe the final push. A touch or throw-over would have to be seen. This is the alternate scenario that is not on top of the mind but maybe possible.


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