S&P 500

My preferred view [in yellow] is that wave 3 down has already started, the 3 day bounce in US stocks is wave II of 3 and III of 3 down is due right away, so risk in equities on this measure are very high. A big crash in US stocks is already underway as stocks are falling by the way side. Indices might reflect it quickly. The alternate scenario is that the recent low is wave b and wave c of 2 will still form by going to the upper Bollinger band [2786]. There is no evidence that this is the case. Yesterday the hourly charts show the US indices rallied in 3 waves and resumed the decline from the 20 day moving average [2692-red dotted plot] and the failure to go above it is right now a sign of immediate weakness. This is the key resistance level to watch near term.