In Sept I started to anticipate a move up in the S&P that would be bigger. Big because it had fallen to the lower bollinger band on the Monthly chart and the reverse parallel channel shown on the chart below. The decline was not a perfect impulse on this index though it was on others like the NYSE Composite. So maybe the S&P would sneak out one more new high.
We did get a rally but not a new high yet. We have an impulse and I wonder if this is a truncated 5th wave that wont go higher or just wave 1 of 5. I think the latter makes sense given the size of the previous waves in 1 and 3. Unless weekly indicators roll over to the sell side, monthly momentum is almost near zero. Once this FED event is done a rally in the S&P would be wave 3 of 5 and the 5th wave would continue to extend to the upper channel longer term near 2300. Watch out for the next momentum buy/sell signal.