Spain

After a long time I look at spain. I used to actively look at it as it fell along with Greece in 2012. But this time it is not in the news so much. It has recovered a lot more. But once we are done with Greece we are going to be looking at either France or Spain. Whatever we give or don't give to Greece will become the demand of these other highly indebted nations.

The chart shows that the sell off in 2012 is probably wave B. Reason? While I tried and counted it as a 5 wave decline at lower degree it is not the best wave count. So maybe it is wave B of a running flat. The recent rally then is on this quarterly chart 5 waves up in wave C. A ended near the 61.8% mark and as long as it is not surpassed, when this trend reverses to the downside, we are looking at a large multi-year head and shoulders top. Now that does not mean the targets will be achieved. Some times prices fall below the neckline and bottom there in a shakeout on long term charts. But that too means a drop below the 2012 lows when crisis hits. Still early days but I am watching this.