INDIACHARTS®

INDIACHARTS is a scientific analysis of the Indian and global stock markets updated weekly using the tools of Elliott Wave theory, candlesticks, momentum cycles, sentiment indicators, moving averages and automated trading systems. TNT or the new technicians represent the approach to the use of these classical tools that has been applied here. 

ALL WAVE COUNTS ON THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGES ARE ACTUALLY COUNTED/ANALYZED MANUALLY ON CHARTS AND DO NOT INVOLVE THE USE OF ANY AUTOMATED WAVE COUNTING SOFTWARE.

Rohit Srivastava: ' Indiacharts is a free update on the markets for public reading. My views are based on my analysis of the markets after years of such analysis, since 1991. MORE ABOUT ME  Visit my video blog on Elliott and long term Cycles at http://www.youtube.com/indiacharts

TECHNICAL FORECAST AND MARKET POSITION FOR INDIA [SENSEX]

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Market update : JANUARY 23, 2012

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Explanatory Note: 

The indices have confirmed positive momentum on two timeframes now and that after a positive divergence usually means a bigger move. Given it occurs after a 14 month bear market it means a larger reversal. Quarterly divergence will keep the X wave rally within larger retracement of the 14 month downtrend however. The long short report opens up possibilities above the falling channel at 5250-5300 which, but that should be the first target where the view should be reviewed. Markets can remain typically bullish till March-April on seasonal trends. We remain in a dynamic bear market and things will keep changing. The focus should remain more on the immediate trend and you will capture the big picture.

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Nifty, Elliott wave update : JANUARY 23, 2012

SHORT TERM COUNT : 

The short term wave counts got frustrating till the weekly trends gave in. To start with I will go with the most conservative wave count that of an expanded flat. Wave C would be 1.618*A giving a target of 5285 for a 5 wave rally from last months low. Wave are in an extended wave iii in that set up. Wave iv would be a triangle and might form in late February. 5099 is the first resistance followed by 5230. 4930 the recent swing low is a good reversal level. Support could come in at 4970 a 23.6% retracement of iii/iii as shown below.

MEDIUM TERM COUNT 

The weekly charts were most significant this week as even the MACD turned a buy along with a close above the 20wma. The positive divergence on the RSI at this time after a 14 month decline means that one larger W corrective phase is over. The expectation therefore is that a larger X wave retracing the entire decline for the last year may occur. Conservatively we would just test the upper channel line or upper Bollinger band and at that time we may review this possibility. 4950 is the 20wma and as long as we are above that the bias is positive. 5118 the 40wema offers next resistance to be surpassed. The upper band at 5350 is the maximum upside potential for now as the waves unfold. 5291 is the upper end of the larger falling channel. So short term resistance cluster is 5099-5118. After that 5285-5291, and then 5350. Support 4930-4950 cluster.

LONG TERM COUNT 

THE LONG & SHORT REPORT : August 01,2011 - The latest report is uploaded.

The long short report is now published and discusses the implications of wave C down in wave Y. As shown below we have started wave Y down which is a cyclical bear market. It would break up as a complex corrective. The first leg of the complex pattern appears to be an A-B-C where B is a triangle, as also a right shoulder. Click on the link above for a detailed analysis of this. The latest Kondratieff article above gives you further inputs about that change.

The long term Sensex made a double top in November v/s 2008. But this is the first double top that did not make a new high even marginally than the previous one, i.e. 2010 high was lower than 2008. In 1994 and 2004 the highs were marginally higher than 1992 and 2000 respectively. So in the past cases the second rally was also 5 wave ending an impulse of previous degree. I still don't think for sure that the rally from the 2009 lows is an impulse but a X [similar characteristics of a B] wave retracing almost 100% but still lagging. The Midcap indices lagging even more. So wave Y down should be upon us instead of C as presumed earlier, allowing for a more complex pattern rather than a 5 wave decline. This means that the path down can split into components. The only alternate is a multi year triangle but that is a wave 4 phenomena and I don't think Indian market can be a wave 4 at supercycle degree, our supercycle starts only after independence. Still the first target would be that of the H&S/triangle discussed above at 14000 and we can review it there. The multi year trendline is at 10000. Lastly check out the volumes at the lower end of the chart clearly falling which is typical of bear markets, an inverse correlation with trend.

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Rohit Srivastava: ' This is a free update on the markets for public reading. My views are based on my analysis of the markets after years of such analysis, since 1991. Investment decisions made on the above analysis would be at your own risk and I take no responsibility for your decisions based on the above analysis.' Rohit Srivastava is an employee of Sharekhan limited, you may note that Sharekhan limited and/or its subsidiaries /group companies are not connected with this website in any capacity.