INDIACHARTS tnt

INDIACHARTS is a scientific analysis of the Indian and global stock markets updated weekly using the tools of Elliott Wave theory, candlesticks, momentum cycles, sentiment indicators, moving averages and automated trading systems. TNT or the new technicians represent the approach to the use of these classical tools that has been applied here. 

ALL WAVE COUNTS ON THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGES ARE ACTUALLY COUNTED/ANALYZED MANUALLY ON CHARTS AND DO NOT INVOLVE THE USE OF ANY AUTOMATED WAVE COUNTING SOFTWARE.

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TECHNICAL FORECAST AND MARKET POSITION FOR INDIA [SENSEX]

December 01, 2008

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Explanatory Note: 

Wave c should slowly witness stronger and stronger breadth. 10700 will remain a key to wave c not terminating early. For now all momentum indicators are pointing upwards.

OTHER MARKET SEGMENTS

THE VALUE WAVE : What are the inflection points in the process of market expansion and contraction in the wave context. How does it happen and what relevance does it have with the stock selection process in terms of psychology.

VALUE CHART 18/11/08 : I am Sentimentally Bullish: Some classical signs can often tell you what not to do.

VALUE CHART 14/11/08 : Crude Relief: Where are all the crude bulls gone?

VALUE CHART 24/11/08 : Dow 7400: The triple bottom on S&P broke but Dow has a longer term one kicking in right now.

SHORT TERM COUNT 

Wave c of 4 has started. c is a 5 wave rally. wave i and ii are complete. 9450[20dma] remains the immediate resistance. A close above the 20dma will confirm further upside. 10291 would be the next resistance above that.

MEDIUM TERM COUNT 

On the weekly chart we have 2 positive weeks followed by two negative and a positive week ending Friday. If wave c is to maintain time equality, though not necessary, it should complete by this weekend touching 11600-11800. The 20wma at 12296 sets the upside limit incase wave c extends. Overall we remain in wave 4 which once complete somewhere below 12500 wave 5 down would resume retesting the previous lows. The falling channel lines will offer resistance at 9734 and 10220. Alternately; In case wave c falls short of equality to wave a, or in case wave 4 itself is a triangle and not a flat [which i am presuming] then 10200-10300 might seen wave c terminate early and turn down again in wave d.

LONG TERM COUNT 

Since targets of wave 5 without extension now don't go below the recent low the risk reward appears favorable to the bulls. But we cant rule out extensions so we will have to wait and watch for wave 5 to end before turning aggressive on the bullish stance. I thought after October that November might close higher month on month, but that did not happen. Now with three negative months and wave 4 in advanced stages we could get that, however if the above time cycles [read medium term view] hold then we wont see a positive month till wave 5 down is over. 

On a Bullish note If you see the marking above its also clear that once the current bear market is over wave 3 of larger degree would unfold. This is a good thing if your vision is 5 years or more. Also consider the alternative that if the long-term trendline at 6600 is not broken or touched and a larger impulse up starts we would be forced to think that the current bear market is a termination of wave 2 of 5 which started in 2001 and what started in 1978 might still not be over. So even though the retracements discussed over the last 2 weeks have warned us of an end to a 30 year cycle the long term trendline still offers hope. The reason for this is that wave 2 of any degree can retrace more than 61.8% and 78.6% lies at 6600 near the long term trendline.

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Rohit Srivastava: ' This is a free update on the markets for public reading. My views are based on my analysis of the markets after years of such analysis, since 1991. Investment decisions made on the above analysis would be at your own risk and I take no responsibility for your decisions based on the above analysis.'