INDIACHARTS

INDIACHARTS is a scientific analysis of the Indian and global stock markets updated weekly using the tools of Elliott Wave theory, candlesticks, momentum cycles, sentiment indicators, moving averages and automated trading systems. TNT or the new technicians represent the approach to the use of these classical tools that has been applied here.

ALL WAVE COUNTS ON THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGES ARE ACTUALLY COUNTED/ANALYZED MANUALLY ON CHARTS AND DO NOT INVOLVE THE USE OF ANY AUTOMATED WAVE COUNTING SOFTWARE.

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Wave iii of C has started. Wave C will continue to grind its way down till a 5 wave decline is complete, in which I believe the Dec low of 4530 will bet broken. The Midcap and Smallcap indices are now leading the way, as breadth has become very poor. The hanging man candle above 5135 on weekly charts has left the bulls trapped above that level for good.

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THE LONG & SHORT REPORT : 11 APRIL 2012 - My latest report. A long term discussion on the position of the Elliott waves for the Indian stock market and where we are headed. What are the alternatives and how to deal with it.

INDIA'S KONDRATIEFF WAVE CYCLE : 03 MAY 2012 - I have posted my most detailed analysis of where I think India stands on the Kondratieff wave cycle. This article will enrich you with the basics of this most important 70 year financial cycle that affects our economy and markets very closely and works around the 5-3 Elliott Wave Structure. I also discuss what will now be my preferred wave count for the price structure for 2008-2013. Its probably the first cyclic analysis of the Kondratieff wave done on the Indian economy and should get you thinking. Views and comments are welcome via the Google group.

Confluence of Elliott Wave with the Kondratieff cycle - Video below

The ATMA presentation 07-Jan 2012 that many asked for is finally here. I have tried to use the original audio for a lot of the presentation to keep the content live, however you might find noise in the background due to the live environment. I have covered parts that were important with my own voice overlay to explain the basics of the Elliott Wave Principle and wave counting for starters. I also come in during the concluding half hour where charts are explained giving my latest view on the situation of interest rates inflation and Nifty [19-03-2012] after the Q&A, so dont miss that. Total time is 1.27hrs Enjoy.

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The RSI fell below 30 for the first time while wave counts are extending in a iii. Wave iii has a minimum target of 4840 and an extended target of 4680. Once complete a wave iv bounce would occur that might bring us out of oversold territory but not yet. 4976 Fridays high and 5030 are key resistance levels. The Nifty is now clearly below all the supports from the falling channel and falling wedge like pattern. At 5040 that high should be formidable in the short term. The 61.8% retracement at 4950 broke, 4810 is the 78.6% retracement that should be up next for the test. The H&S neckline of next degree shown as the blue line below at 4653 might be a support worth watching. So 4680-4653 becomes the next meaningful support zone.

The bear market from the 2010 highs has now become equal to the Y2K bear market entering its 19th month. Therefore any longer time would make it the longest since. After 2 negative months we are in the 3rd. The recent two month cycle puts this at the outer end so all targets must be achieved this month as time cycles catch up with each other after the 2 month long time adjustment. In other words we should be below 4530 by the end of the month or early June. On the weekly charts with all the averages broken the next major support is near the lower Bollinger band at 4794. C=A*1.618= 4730. 3 weeks down we should have 2-3 weeks more to the cycle.

The long short report last published discusses the completion of A-B-C decline from the 2010 high in a falling channel and a breakout from there. If the Kondratieff cycle is still at work this rally is an X wave and can retrace 61.8% to 99% of the fall one more time. Will it be a small retracement or a big one leading to a triple top only time will tell. Since its a corrective fall should we get a bull market? An Autumn bull market extension happens when inflation and interest rates are kept low as discussed in the Kondratieff report. Its to early to say that is possible on a sustained basis but there are some early signs of its possibility in the near term, however due to our macroeconomic position its hard to predict weather its sustainable for a long time as was the case in the west. The latest Kondratieff article above gives you further inputs about these issues.

The long term wave counts are remarked. Wave Y was anticipated to be an extended decline but truncated within 38.2% retracement of X. Now a new X wave rally has started which can retrace 61.8% at 18900 78.6% at 19942, or best case go for a triple top at 21000. I think one of the first two are possible but will watch out for the third as the 90s saw many attempts at the 4200 Sensex level over a decade. However broadly I believe we are in a corrective phase and wave Z down is pending in the final episode once wave X is over.

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*SENSEX - CHANGES HAVE BEEN MARKED IN YELLOW*
Time	Target	Trend	Reversal	Trend Implication
SHORT TERM	16050-15550	Down	16671	1-5 Days
MEDIUM TERM	Below 15075	Down	17380	1-4 Weeks

*NIFTY - CHANGES HAVE BEEN MARKED IN YELLOW*
Time	Target	Trend	Reversal	Trend Implication
SHORT TERM	4840-4680	Down	5030	1-5 Days
MEDIUM TERM	Below 4500	Down	5280	1-4 Weeks


THE VALUE WAVE : What are the inflection points in the process of market expansion and contraction in the wave context. How does it happen and what relevance does it have with the stock selection process in terms of psychology. This is how long term stocks and economic trends can be forecast using Elliott Wave analysis. At some time I will discuss Value Wave stocks if possible.
SPECIFIC TOPICS UPDATED AND POSTED FROM TIME TO TIME *http://www.indiacharts.com/sc/sc1.htm 20 MAR 2012* *http://www.indiacharts.com/sc/sc2.htm 31 JAN 2012* *http://www.indiacharts.com/sc/vc2.htm 17 NOV 2011* *http://www.indiacharts.com/sc/vc1.htm 25 AUG 2011* *http://www.indiacharts.com/sc/sc.htm 12 AUG 2011*
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