Nasdaq 100

If it was easy and I did not have to rethink my analysis everyday then everyone one would the stock market a piece of cake. And so we have to keep all the observations at the back of the mind and go over them again and again before taking a view. Yes Nasdaq broke the 61.8% mark and made a new low but does this mean wave 3 crash has started? What are the odds, that is the question to answer.

The new low allows me to look at the Nasdaq 100 again. The composite made its highest level in Aug  but the NDX on 01-Oct, so that is the orthodox top. Wave e of 5 ends there. Then the 5 wave decline from that top is clear and now the new low allows me to mark the Oct-Nov swings as a expanding triangle at the end of wave 1. Now with 8% bulls on the Nasdaq as well this is a ideal setting for a bottom and wave 2 up to start that never formed till now.

On the Nasdaq Composite it is possible you stick to the earlier wave count and mark the recent moves as part of an expanded flat as the low yesterday is at the low of wave 4 seen in April. Wave B so far is 123.6% of A