NYSE Composite

Given all the bearish sentiment out there here is a visit to the big picture view [quarterly chart] on US equities using the NYA index as it is an index of all US equities. The 2008 bear market on most US indices was a larger expanded flat that started in 2000 itself so I have retained that marking. In that sense, 2000-2008 is a bear market in US equities. After that, we started something new that completed five waves before the pandemic. The pandemic was a larger second wave that retraced over 50% back to the IVth wave of that rally. Now a new impulse wave has started and we are in wave II of that and wave III may or may not have started.

In the short term, on this daily chart, I am working with the presumption that wave III started till proven wrong and the recent correction is wave II pullback after the first rally and should complete at one of the retracements. It can be deep or a consolidation that takes weeks so the best part of the recent rally may be over till we get the tapering to commence next month as discussed in the FED minutes. I am not sure if it results in a deeper cut for US equities due to this announcement as well. So US stocks are going to be on watch for a while.